Monsoon Disaster Risks 2026

The Monsoon Preparedness and Response National Action Plan estimates about 226,661 people (51,868 households) across Nepal will be impacted by this year's monsoon, with increased risks of floods, landslides, and heatwaves. Forecasts predict below-average rainfall and elevated temperatures similar to previous years 2014, 2016, and 2022, raising risks of heatwaves in the Terai plains and glacial lake outburst floods in Himalayan regions.

The global fire season in 2026 started 50% more intense than average, with over 163 million hectares burned since January amid warnings of a severe fire year driven by climate change and a potential strong El Nino.

A western low-pressure system partially impacted Nepal's weather, causing cloudy skies and light to moderate rain in Gandaki, Karnali, and Sudurpashchim provinces, with potential thunderstorms and snowfall in hilly and mountainous areas.

Moderate rainfall and snowfall with thunder and lightning were forecasted in mountainous and hilly areas including Koshi Province, influenced by western winds and local airflows. Partial clouds appeared in some Tarai regions.

Moderate rain with thunder and lightning is forecasted in hilly and mountainous areas of Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, Lumbini, and Sudurpashchim provinces, with possible light snowfall in high-altitude regions today.

More than 1.9 million people from 457,145 households in Nepal could be affected by monsoon-related disasters this year, with vulnerable groups including 164,000 children under five, 415,000 elderly above 60, and nearly 48,000 persons with disabilities.

Nepal experienced an unusually active pre-monsoon season through May 7, with 204.9 mm of rainfall recorded, amounting to about 89.5% of the typical total pre-monsoon precipitation, accompanied by frequent clouds, thunderstorms, and strong winds especially over Kathmandu Valley.

Affected by a western low-pressure system, Kathmandu Valley and several hilly and Himalayan regions including Gandaki, Lumbini, Karnali, and Sudurpashchim are experiencing light to moderate rainfall with thunder and lightning.

Western low-pressure and local winds maintain the likelihood of rain with lightning today in Bagmati, Gandaki, Lumbini, Karnali, and Sudurpashchim provinces. Partial clouds and light rain with lightning are also possible in some Tarai areas.

Nepal faces heightened food insecurity due to increasing fuel prices by about 40%, fertilizer shortages, and a weak monsoon linked to the US-Iran conflict and global climate risks, potentially reducing agricultural production by up to 50%.

Continuous rain led to floods and landslides blocking key roads including the B.P. Highway in Kavrepalanchok and several district roads in Ilam and Bhojpur, severely impacting transportation.

A weather system causing heavy rain and gusty winds is moving towards eastern Nepal, affecting multiple provinces including Bagmati, Madhesh, Karnali, and Lumbini with rainfall, storms, and lightning continuing throughout the week.

Heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds are forecast in Sudurpashchim, Karnali, Lumbini provinces, and the Terai region, prompting authorities to advise precautions due to impacts on daily life and transportation.

Moderate to heavy rain and snowfall with thunder and lightning are expected in Nepal's hilly and mountainous regions, with some rain likely in Tarai areas including Koshi and Madhesh Provinces.

Landslides caused by pre-monsoon rains blocked multiple highways including Kanti Highway at Pangdur in Lalitpur and Mid-Hill Highway at Bimire Bhanjyang in Lamjung, with Arniko Highway at Kodari still fully blocked since April 29.

Nepal is expected to experience cloudy weather with rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and occasional hail across many regions. Moderate to heavy precipitation is forecast, especially in Koshi, Bagmati, and Gandaki provinces and some hilly areas.

Nepal is forecast to experience continuous rain throughout the week, with Gandaki Province most severely affected by rain and snowfall in hills and mountains. Thunderstorms and moderate rain are expected in Terai areas of Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, and Madhesh provinces until Tuesday.

Nepal's tectonic location and monsoon rains make it highly vulnerable to earthquakes, floods, and landslides, with ongoing challenges in disaster preparedness and resilience building.

Nepal is forecast to experience light to moderate rainfall with thunder and possible windstorms until Saturday due to westerly winds and a low-pressure area, easing heatwave conditions and improving air quality including in Kathmandu Valley.

Nepal's agriculture sector is bracing for below-normal monsoon rains, fertilizer shortages, and high fuel prices, which may severely impact crop yields and food security, affecting 24% of GDP and over 60% of the population.

Heavy rains caused floods and landslides disrupting traffic on Arniko Highway in Sindhupalchok and Mid-Hill Highway in Lamjung, with some sections fully blocked or reduced to one-way traffic.

Nepal Army began collecting data on squatters to improve disaster preparedness and planning for rescue, relief, and rehabilitation efforts against floods, landslides, and river erosion ahead of the monsoon.

The Meteorological Forecasting Division predicted rain with thunderstorms and lightning across most urban areas in Nepal, including Kathmandu Valley and Tarai cities such as Bhairahawa, Simara, Janakpur, and Biratnagar, with light to moderate rainfall expected throughout the day.

The Meteorological Forecasting Division predicted widespread cloudy conditions with moderate to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across most parts of Nepal, especially in Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati, and Gandaki provinces. Heavy rainfall is possible at isolated locations in Koshi and Gandaki.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya recorded its lowest snowpack in 24 years in 2026, with a 27.8% deficit threatening water security for nearly two billion people across 12 river basins due to reduced seasonal snowmelt.

Heavy rainfall was recorded in various districts of Nepal, including Lamjung which received 87.4 millimeters, marking the start of increased precipitation and cooler weather to reduce the ongoing heatwave.