El Niño poses food inflation risk across ASEAN
Summary
El Niño is expected to pose a bigger inflation risk than a growth shock for ASEAN economies, with rice, wheat, maize and vegetable oil prices likely to rise. The Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand are among the most exposed, while policy responses such as subsidies and food trade measures will shape the impact.
Key Points
- El Niño is likely to hit ASEAN economies mainly through higher food prices rather than a broad growth shock.
- Rice, wheat, maize and vegetable oils are expected to be the main channels pushing inflation higher.
- The Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand face higher exposure, while Malaysia and Vietnam also face meaningful risks.
- The final impact will depend on weather conditions and policy responses such as subsidies, stock releases and trade restrictions.
