El Niño poses food inflation risk across ASEAN: OCBC economist
Summary
El Niño is expected to raise food inflation across ASEAN, with rice, wheat, maize and vegetable oil prices posing the biggest risks. OCBC Research says the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand are among the most exposed economies, while policy responses will shape the final impact.
Key Points
- OCBC Group Research says El Niño is more likely to trigger inflation pressures than a broad growth shock across ASEAN economies.
- Higher prices for rice, wheat, maize and vegetable oils are expected to be the main transmission channels.
- The Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand are assessed as the most exposed ASEAN economies, while Malaysia and Vietnam face more concentrated risks.
- The final macroeconomic impact will depend on weather conditions and policy measures such as subsidies, stock releases and food trade restrictions.
