Why are weather forecasts not accurate?
Summary
Nepal’s weather forecasts still face accuracy limits because of complex terrain, limited observation stations in remote areas and the challenge of predicting local weather variations. Experts say forecasting has improved over the past two decades, but seasonal outlooks and microclimates remain difficult to predict precisely.
Key Points
- The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for monsoon 2026 predicted a weaker-than-normal monsoon, but seasonal rainfall later ended up near normal at 94.5 percent of average.
- Experts say Nepal’s complex geography, especially in remote mountain areas, makes accurate weather forecasting difficult because observation stations cannot cover all locations equally.
- Weather can change sharply within short distances due to microclimates, land-use changes and atmospheric differences, making local predictions harder.
- Forecasting capacity has improved in Nepal with satellites, automated stations, numerical models and foreign data, but 100 percent accuracy is still unrealistic.
