Seasonality of the Nepalese Stock Market: A Historical Analysis of NEPSE and Sectoral Indices
Summary
July is historically the strongest month for the Nepalese stock market (NEPSE) with notable gains across multiple sectoral indices, driven by dividend announcements and fiscal year-end reports.
Key Points
- July (Shrawan) is the strongest month for the NEPSE Index with a 73.33% chance of positive returns and an average monthly gain of 6.00%.
- Financial sectors like Banking, Development Bank, and Finance Indices show remarkable positive seasonality in July linked to dividend announcements.
- Non-financial sectors such as Hotel & Tourism and Manufacturing indices show diversified seasonality with January and December also performing well.
- Months August and September consistently show weaker performance and negative returns across most sectoral indices, indicating post-dividend profit-taking.
